With opening day beginning tomorrow, the summer season kicks off with the return of baseball, "America's" sport. With the stock market continuing to impress and the economy continuing to improve, does this mean more consumers are going to head out to the ballpark?
In a study done by analysts at ConvergEX Group at opening day of 2012, they found an interesting correlation: history shows that Major League Baseball attendance mirrors that of consumer confidence. In other words, if the numbers of people attending the ball games are rising, consumer confidence is high- an indicator that the economy is doing well.
Up until 2012, the attendance at baseball games had been declining since 2007. Numbers have not reached the all-time high attendance of 32,770 people set in 2007.
Looking at the teams with the highest ranked attendance at home (Philadelphia Phillies, New York Yankees, and San Francisco Giants), in 2011 their average attendance were as follows: 45,440, 45,107, and 41,818 respectively.
In 2012, the Phillies attendance average at home declined to 44,021, the Yankees dropped to 43,733, and San Francisco actually dropped to fourth place, but only slightly dipped with an average of 41,695 attendants at home games.
From 2011 to 2012, the average number of attendants dropped, but then again, consumer confidence had declined in March 2012 due to lower employment expectations and a less favorable short-term outlook.
So what does that foreshadow about baseball season attendance for 2013?
The Conference Board released the new Consumer Confidence Index on March 26 and although consumer confidence rose in February, the Board reports it has since declined.
The index has dipped 8.5 points.
Lynn Franco, the Director of Economic Indicators at the Conference Board, says the reason for the decline comes from a decline in expectations. Expectations with, for example, the recent sequester in Washington. It has created uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, thus making consumers more uneasy about their spending.
This decrease in consumer confidence does not bode well for the upcoming baseball season. If consumer's are not confident in spending on pastimes, baseball attendance will again decline further.
Looks like we will all be Root Root Root-ing for the home teams from our nice (and way cheaper) living rooms until we feel better about our economy. Sorry Derek Jeter, but you're on your own.
-Katie Ackell
SOURCES:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm
http://espn.go.com/mlb/attendance/_/year/2012
http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-03-27/economy/31243075_1_consumer-confidence-confidence-readings-lynn-franco
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/story/2012-04-14/baseball-economy/54168920/1
No comments:
Post a Comment